Recently, the struggle between the current government and the parliamentary opposition has sharply intensified in Armenia.
The reason was the statement of PM Nikol Pashinyan that “the international community calls on Armenia to lower the bar on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh” Political opponents of Pashinyan interpret this expression as a refusal of demand recognition of the independence of Karabakh.
Opposition united in the “Resistance Movement”. It is based on the political blocs “I have the honor” and “Armenia”, backed by former presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan. Since April 2022, the opposition in Yerevan has been organizing rallies almost daily.
At the same time, despite their high activity, the opposition have not yet been able to expand their support base. Their rallies are collected on average by 2,000 to 5,000 people. The main population of Armenia stays in apathy and perceives the protests as an attempt by the “former” to return to power.
Pashinyan, on the contrary, demonstrates self-confidence and keeps the situation under control. The authorities expect the protests to weaken over time.
According to the International Expert Platform organized by the SIKHA Foundation, political instability will continue in the country in the near future. Rallies will continue. However, they will not become widespread. Opportunities for a change of regime in Armenia may appear in the medium term, when due to socio-economic problems, support for the Pashinyan government will decrease and new political forces, not connected to the former political elite, will strengthen.