At present, the work on the conclusion of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan has significantly intensified. The parties declare their intention to sign the document in the near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, according to the International Expert Platform (IEP), the conclusion of a peace treaty will not be able to resolve the wide range of fundamental contradictions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. It will only create the illusion of a settlement of the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yerevan and Baku are highly likely to have different interpretations of the text of the peace treaty, just as differences remain over the Tripartite Statement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia on November 9\/10, 2020. In addition, the bilateral peace treaty does not provide for guarantors of implementation of agreements. Georgia, which is considered as a possible place for signing, unlikely can be the guarantor. It does not have the necessary political authority and its own strategic vision of the future of the South Caucasus. Tbilisi try to assist the mediation efforts of the West, hoping in this way to increase its significance for the US and the EU and speed up the process of European integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The peace treaty does not provide an automatic settlement of the border problem. The delimitation and demarcation of the border is a long process where decisions are made for each specific section of the border. In particular, the definition of the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan with Georgia has not yet been completed. It is not clear how security issues will be solved and military escalations at the border will be stopped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The topic of opening transport links remains difficult. Even after agreeing on general principles, the parties will have to find mutually acceptable options for routes and the legal regime for the functioning of communications. One of the most sensitive issues is related to the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Authorities of Azerbaijan declares its readiness to integrate Karabakh Armenians into legal and administrative system of the republic. However, so far this process looks rather uncertain. There are no specific mechanisms of integration and security guarantees. This, in turn, creates high risks of an exodus of the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh in after the mission of Russian peacekeepers ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n